And both populations and temperatures are ever-rising, meaning that the freshwater we do have is under severe pressure. In other words, the near future presents one big freshwater drain after the next. The Ganges Basin in India is depleting, due to population and irrigation demands, by an estimated 6. Meanwhile, Mexico City, built on ancient lake beds, is now sinking in some areas at a rate of nine inches a year.
As the city draws on the aquifer below, the effect is like drinking a milkshake through a straw. Once horizontal streets now undulate like BMX tracks. Much of the same is happening in California. From to , the state suffered its worst drought in 1, years. Its major aquifers receded at a combined rate of 16 million acre-feet per year, and roughly 1, wells ran dry. But what else could all this mean, beyond the fact that our freshwater supply could soon be very strapped?
Some hypothesise that increased water shortages around the world will lead to wars. The current Syrian civil war has been cited by many, including Dr Peter Engelke, senior Fellow at Washington-based think tank Atlantic Council, as a recent example.
They become easily targeted. All of which would predict a bleak future — but some nations have worked out solutions. Readily available freshwater supplies are especially crucial following natural disasters, as seen here in Bangladesh, following Cyclone Sidr in Credit: Getty Images.
The key was putting a price on water and making it a tradable commodity. Those two countries have been hit by severe drought and the decreased water flow in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers has further magnified the issue of water availability, leading to an increased reliance on groundwater for the irrigation of crops and domestic water needs. These water security stressors are also linked to social unrest in the forms of protests and political instability, particularly in Iran.
Regions that experienced an increase in freshwater availability during the course of the GRACE mission and are forecast to experience a further increase in rainfall, must show initiative in developing policies and projects to increase their resilience. They must focus on water security, to ensure access to an adequate future water supply.
There is a great opportunity for such regions to capture and sustainably utilise their supply. On the other hand, the opportunity could also be overlooked or squandered, causing detrimental environmental, social and political turmoil. By , the regions that are most likely to be water stressed include parts of north-west China, north and east India, and the northern parts of the Middle East and North Africa.
Those regions all have similar characteristics. They have: comparable climates, growing populations, a high dependence on agriculture and are undergoing rapid economic development. Some of them are also prone to political instability and regional conflict. Xinjiang, a province in north-west China, and the greater Beijing region both experienced intense depletion of freshwater during the GRACE study period.
Rapid levels of development and a heavy reliance on groundwater for agriculture mostly explain the huge groundwater losses.
Xinjiang is one of the poorer provinces of China, with an estimated 1. The lack of water and outdated irrigation systems have weakened the agricultural development of the region, causing it to miss out on the economic boom that much of China has experienced over the past 30 years. Agriculture is also an important economic sector in the greater Beijing region, which is experiencing human-induced water depletion.
The stressors of population growth and the migration of people to Beijing have propelled urban development and increased the demand for food. The increasing demand for food has led to the expansion of agricultural irrigation within the greater Beijing region, putting further stress on water resources there.
Agricultural production in eastern China is hitting its limits. To gradually increase food production, alleviate food supply restrictions and maintain food security, there is a greater need to develop the western provinces of China. Consequently, the Chinese Government has turned its focus to the development of the Xinjiang region.
Those development efforts have taken the form of agricultural development policies and the growth of its water-intensive cotton industry. The irrigation systems will enhance the development of the region and possibly reduce social and political tensions.
As the availability of water within the province declines, the policies and agricultural infrastructure investments may be limited in their potential to overcome the current security issues, which are driven by more than just water insecurity. The Nature analysis also points out that freshwater availability in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and northern and eastern India has declined. The loss of freshwater is attributable to a decrease in monsoon season precipitation in the eastern region and intense levels of surface, especially flood, irrigation for water intensive crops, such as rice and wheat.
This region is the third-most heavily irrigated area covered by the study. It is also home to the highest density of rural poor in the world, who are highly dependent on agriculture for their food and livelihood security. The region is also highly susceptible to climate change, which was evident in the results of the GRACE mission, as the region experienced years of alternating drought and floods between and Agriculture is the backbone of the region.
Crop yields and the water supply will be negatively impacted as population growth and severe climatic pressures continue to increase. As this is one of the most heavily irrigated regions in the world, freshwater availability will continue to decline unless water conservation technologies are more widely adopted.
The increasing severity of weather events, driven by changes in the hydrological cycle, is a growing concern, as Indian crop yields are highly variable from year to year. This affects food security to the point where unexpectedly severe weather events, such as flash floods, could potentially wipe out food supplies. Not only could it reduce the quantity of readily available food, but it could also have an economic impact on the whole country.
The reduction in crop supply would see India increasingly rely on food imports, which could potentially lead to trade imbalances. Similar conditions have occurred in Egypt.
Of the four regions that are most likely to experience severe food and water threats by , the Middle East, specifically the northern part of the region encompassing Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran, will be most threatened. This is reiterated by the World Bank , which states that the Middle East-North Africa region is a global hotspot for unsustainable water use. This especially involves groundwater, where more than half of current water withdrawals exceed natural rates of water recharge.
It is also important to note that, by , the region is expected to have the greatest economic loss from climate-related water scarcity. This region is not as heavily irrigated as India or China, but there is a high degree of competition for already scarce water resources. The northern Middle East has a complicated water history compared to other regions. The complication and competition arises in the form of dams, severe drought and regional instability.
The dams have altered river flow patterns restricting the flows of freshwater between regions. Furthermore, drought has drastically increased the regional reliance on groundwater, as water availability from other sources, like rivers, has diminished. Over the past 30 years, Turkey has constructed 22 dams upstream on the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. This has decreased the flow rate by at least 40 per cent in Iraq and Syria.
The Nature analysis, however, has not accounted for the impact of regional instability and conflict on freshwater supplies. In the Middle East, water is often used as a tool or weapon to advance state agendas. In Iraq, water has been used to secure political and military aims, further destabilising the country. In one example, drawn from local accounts, the governor of Najaf diverted more water than allocated to his own farmers to boost his popularity. You can live without oil but you can not live without water.
We have plenty of water just for the taking. Keeping enough volumes for environmental flows, improved irrigation practices and artificially ground water recharge would help maintain water cycle balance in the long term. Water demand is ever increasing while supply is dwindling and reaching an equilibrium for now and for future generations.
I am very curious about fresh water scarcity in the world. Some of the countries are facing this problem and will face more next in the upcoming years. Do more afforestation can solve this problem? Community planning meeting in Segou, Mali.
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